Outliers of the NHL Draft
Posted by freezethepuck on June 28, 2010
Back in 2008 Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book entitled Outliers. In the first chapter of the book he discusses the relation between hockey players (particularly Canadians in the Juniors) and their birth month.
To begin, the cut off for many leagues in Canada begins January 1st. Thus players born in the beginning months of the year (January, February, March) get an advantage (in size, accessibility to better coaches, players, etc.).
For the full details check out Gladwell’s book, but when he heard about the possible connection between birth month and likelihood of making it to the NHL, he began doing research of Junior players and NHLers.
Gladwell concluded the following about players’ birth months in the NHL and Juniors:
January, February, March: 40%
April, May, June: 30%
July, August, September: 20%
October, November, December: 10%
With the draft possibly introducing new players into the NHL, Gladwell’s statistics were put to the test.
Below is a table of the draftees from the first round of the 2010 NHL draft.
Then, by following Gladwell’s pattern of January-March, April-June, July-September, October-November, this table shows the percentages of players drafted in the first round. Eight players of the first round were born in the months of October (1991) to December (1991).
As predicted by Gladwell, January (1992) to March (1992) had the most with ten players.
Those percentages do not match Gladwell’s predictions exactly, but then again, these players have yet to make it to the professional level.
Additionally though, Gladwell’s statistical evidence came from Canadian players. In the first round, Canada produced 15 players. And each group of months produced the exact same percentages as the overall first round (from the above table).
With the entire draft included though, the numbers better fit Gladwell’s discussion.
The Canadians of the entire draft had a decent model when compared to Gladwell’s numbers. The January to March and April to June numbers flip-flopped with Gladwell’s.
Keep in mind these numbers are all based on 181 players in the draft because 29 players were born earlier than October 1991.
However, Gladwell’s numbers still could come true with these draftees.
Nevertheless, Gladwell does not imply that having a birthday early in the year will guarantee a spot in the NHL. In fact, he does clarify that hockey players earn their way into the league, but at a young age their birthday rewards them with access to better opportunities.
Nearly one-third of the draft picks from the first round were born in 1991. They became the oldest of this crop because they were the youngest in their year, and thus the “smallest.”
In all honesty, many of these players drafted this year have a chance of making it to the professional level. But that extra help they received at a young age could make the difference between becoming an elite player and a player only lasting a few more years in hockey.
